A long and somewhat worthwhile chase in Sask on Sunday and Monday. Sunday was short only getting some squall lines in the Loydminster area and went to Watson,SK to spend the night. Monday I left toward the direction of Moose Jaw. First rather appealing HP storm moved through earlier in the day and I checked it out near Linagan. Some of the most incredible thunder I’ve heard in a long time. By now a squall line had formed in SE Alberta So I made my way toward Moose Jaw.
Not knowing the roads in Sask very well(and warnings of still flood damaged highways) I ended up going up to Saskatoon and then back south towards Moose Jaw, barely passing though Saskatoon before a line of hailstorms moved in, by now the moose Jaw area already had tornadoes on the ground and I was going 130km/h to make time. I finally got to it when it was then northwest of Moose Jaw. I stopped in Chamberlain to take some photos of the shrinking meso and got an apparent funnel cloud that at the same time seen on TVNweather
streams. I followed the storm and squall line to Regina and after taking some shots of the mammatus filled sky I headed back on a very long drive, stopping in Medicine hat for the night and then back home.
By far the longest chase I’ve done so far, Sure will make less mistakes next time I chase in Sask, and bring a decent road map as well.
Weather models currently show a flurry of possible severeWX setups in the coming weeks, it looks like a good summer indeed.
AlbertaWX is currently now In Watson, SK for the night and will likely head south towards Regina and moose jaw depending on the Models come morning.
Currently I(Mike R) and in Vermillion heading to battlefored and then possibly down towards bigger. stay tuned for updates
Today is the last day for WX in Alberta as the setup moves into Sask completely by tomorrow. Today though We expect severe storms to fire up once again in southern Alberta. Another note up north of 60 things are insanely hot, well into the 30s a many locations and it is this I fell that is keeping all the action tot he south and east
Sunday morning update
Models currently point to a potential severe setup with large hail, high winds, and flash flooding this weekend. The setup has changed dramatically with dry air invading from the currently hot arctic(temps up there locally into the low to mid 30s)
Models are still having a hard time even on the same day of the setup, the best shear is shifting up to 70km from run to run. So anything could happen
Sunday looks marginal close to home as NAM shows a finger of 1250 CAPE extending into the Camrose, Viking area moving toward the SK border by midnight while the 3000+ Cape seems to be stuck in southern Alberta. Though the cape is not great the Camrose area has some good shear. 30kt sfc-850 and 35kt sfc-700mb shear means that severe WX can exist even with the lower cape, Cells in the area will likely be isolated LP supercells. Good top to bottom shear could make these quite severe with very Large hail. The RAP(a short term model with max 18 hour lead time) Shows this is the beast shear in East Central Alberta including Camrose, Loydminister, Provost, Coronation, and Vermillion.
Monday looks to be isolated to the SE corner of the province and into Saskatchewan. Temps are in the mid to high 20s, but Dewpoints are to low for anything significant in Central Alberta.
Tuesday shows new tends towards better dewpoints in Central Alberta, though things seem to dry out quickly, shear is low so only a few pulses early in the day as the rest of the action remains in Saskatchewan.
As always stay tuned, With the past changes as large as they were I expect things to radically change with future days of this WX setup.
Models showing a incredible amount of shear and very high potential for large hail. Supercells WILL be present. Expect this setup to start in SE Alberta and work up to the yellowhead. Storm chaser Mike Rurak will be all over these! Expect some epic footage!