June 26th/27 saw the first nocturnal storm of the year in the Edmonton area. Frequent lightning strikes made noise all night. Several storms also formed up to the south of Millet during daylight hours and into the evening.
A major heatwave is coming this weekend and could last well into next week. Temperatures should rise into the high 20s at first but later get into the low to mid 30s. A few model runs are even going as far as showing high 30s, or even the 40s!
All this heat will combine with the saturated ground to create some of the muggiest conditions of the year, possibly triggering humidex advisories much like we saw last year.
As for WX good helicity and upper level shear should allow for an almost daily chance of discrete supercells over a wide area. Low level shear is not as high so tornadoes will be few and far between.
Then again the storms may bring very large hail, very intense lightning, severe downpours and damaging winds.
Saturday seems to be the first of the storm days. SBcape up to 3500 along with shear will create 0-3km EHI levels of 2 or 3, and 0-1km EHI of 1 or 2.
It’s late June and I’ve released my forecast for the Summer of 2013.
With the devastating floods in Southern Alberta the forecast is likely not what we all want to hear. The reasons for the cold wet forecast down there is a combination of 3 things.
-A cycle created by excessive moisture. solar energy goes to evaporating the water instead of heating the ground, the water forms clouds and produces more rain putting down slightly less than what evaporated.
-Blocking has been predominant so far, currently a blocking pattern over Alaska has resulted in an extreme jet stream pattern and partly caused the great floods.
-The summers during such floods have had a history of being cold and wet. The summers of 2005 and 1995 were quite chilly. Summer 1986 also had a cooler soggy summer. A connection and not purely in indicator of what summer 2013 may bring.
Tornado warnings were issued for the capital region there was unconfirmed reports of funnel clouds near Leduc and a confirmed report of one near Pigeon Lake. Information is still coming in but as of yet no confirmed touchdowns. the wallcloud passed right over Edmonton its self and caused chaos in the city. At this time there is much speculation but not much has been confirmed at this time.