Right up until today the models were in disarray with the current snowfall, thus I was not able to safely make an accurate forecast.
The GEM and GFS were showing low accumulations of 5cm or less over the south end of the province, however the NAM was predicting up to 20cm of a wide swath of southern Alberta
So the NAM was the accurate model for this round of snow.
Custom drawn map of expected 3 day snowfall amounts
With about 12 hours now of lead time the models are more in alignment for the incoming snowstorm.
Highest snowfall total are expected in the northern foothills eastward in to the capital region and south. I would expect warnings to be expanded a bit more south and east as some models show the heaviest bands between Edmonton and Red deer.
Models hint at the highest winds being in east central Alberta, around 30-50km/h in spots giving the risk of blowing snow and white-out conditions in those areas. Winds in most other areas in the 20-40km/h range or less will still give poor conditions along the QE2, Yellowhead and other roadways farther west
Happy new year everyone! The next wave of snow appears to be targeting the capital region and northern Alberta with 11-15cm At this time the system is hitting with quite a force in BC, as a result most of Northern BC is under winter storm and heavy snowfall warnings. Thankfully our ever present buffer the mountains should remove some of this Pacific moisture and turn it into a more moderate snowfall according to GEM. This is all expected to take place mostly on Thursday and Friday morning. Of course this is Alberta, the system could always intensify. Never say never when it comes to Alberta weather. 😉