Earlier I decided not to do a forecast for October as at first the one in the Fall 2016 forecast seems good. But things may not pan out that way, so here is your October 2016 forecast)
Near of above normal temperature are staying at 3 and 4 weeks out in the models when we get closer the trends have changed. This is what I see as a good sign of stubborn weather pattern.
October 2016 could be the coldest in a decade, with temperatures close to 5-10 degrees below normal, above normal snow/rainfall.
Oct 8-15: Temperatures well below normal with several rounds of snow, it will look and feel more like December.
Oct 15-31: getting even colder with more snow. This could be the actual start of Winter 2016/17 as the snow may stick around until March or April 2017.
Some Recent examples of very early winter’s would be winter 2004/05 and winter 2006/07 with winter starting in Mid Oct and Late Oct respectively. Oct 2009 saw a period of extremely cold temperatures(-20C) and snow, but there 15C weather in November that managed to remove all of the snow.