Author Archives: Mike R

After an October that was more than 2C colder than normal and with double the snowfall things are to dramatically switch for November. Starting around Oct 26th the long range models consistently plotted record smashing temperatures. As of this post(Nov) so far day 2 of that same record heat. A very strong pattern has set up and locked in the heat for Western Canada.

Temperatures have shot up towards the 20s, IN NOVEMBER. One location(Edmonton Airport) broke the all time high for the month twice on consecutive days, and there might even be a 3rd! Current models+bias(actual temperature-modelled temperature=Bias) shows even this record could fall again during the 2nd week of the month as temperatures might even reach the mid 20s in parts of central and southern Alberta.

This heat wave may last for a significant time. The CFS,ECMWF are jumping around between the 15th and inter December for the end of the 10+C warmer than normal weather. Generally the 20th is a good guess at this point for this forecast.

Overall November could 10C warmer than normal or higher and in the top 5 toastiest on record. Closer to normal conditions could be in store toward the final two weeks

Nov 1-10: Extremely warm and dry. Temperatures from the teens to the low 20s.

Nov 10-20:Possibly the peak of the warmth with temperatures nearing the mid 20s in select locations in central and southern Alberta.

Nov 20-30: Cooling off. Timing of the cool down will decide where in the top 5 Nov 2016 will sit. Temperatures could see a 50C drop from the highs were seeing for the beginning of the month

Earlier I decided not to do a forecast for October as at first the one in the Fall 2016 forecast seems good. But things may not pan out that way, so here is your October 2016 forecast)

Near of above normal temperature are staying at 3 and 4 weeks out in the models when we get closer the trends have changed. This is what I see as a good sign of stubborn weather pattern.

October 2016 could be the coldest in a decade, with temperatures close to 5-10 degrees below normal, above normal snow/rainfall.

Oct 8-15: Temperatures well below normal with several rounds of snow, it will look and feel more like December.

Oct 15-31: getting even colder with more snow. This could be the actual start of Winter 2016/17 as the snow may stick around until March or April 2017.

Some Recent examples of very early winter’s would be winter 2004/05 and winter 2006/07 with winter starting in Mid Oct and Late Oct respectively. Oct 2009 saw a period of extremely cold temperatures(-20C) and snow, but there 15C weather in November that managed to remove all of the snow.

After a summer better called the “monsoon season” the transition into Autumn seems to have the same rain, and more rain we have seen since mid May. 2016 was the 2nd most active since 2005 with 59 thunderstorms as of Sept 8, so a few more are likely before the end of the year so I could see a tie for the most active. 2016 also made news with it’s severity being the first in a decade to see 10 or more tornadoes and was closer to pre-2002 activity, also a populated area was impacted(Ponoka) by one of these tornadoes(EF-1). I recorded a total of 16 severe thunderstorms in my single local area which is the highest number I’ve logged since i started keeping track in 2005. We are currently entering the autumn with moisture levels not seen in years so we may see thunderstorm outbreaks and heavy rainfall events into October. Unless the fall is much cooler than average 2016 will run in the top 3 warmest years on record. Much of this headroom was made during the winter which was incredibly warm.

Overall The Autumn should be near normal for temperatures and precipitation. Cooler and very wet weather in September is likely to change to a warmer and slightly drier pattern as early as Late September. With possible warm and dry periods before that. The fall could be a little of the cool and wet side for southwestern Alberta while the northwest warms up and dries out into October.

September:Slightly cooler than normal and very wet in the western part of the province, near normal temperatures and near normal- wet over the remainder of the province.

Sept 1-15: Mild and very humid for the time of year. Very wet. Some days might be reach 25C. High thunderstorm activity

Sept 15-30: Becoming drier and warmer overall. Severe thunderstorm still a likelihood.

Oct: Warmer than normal with slightly below normal rainfall/snowfall. Severe thunderstorms possible as late as thanksgiving. Unusual warmth around Halloween.

November: Closer to normal overall, drier. Very warm and drier to start the month, At some point Mid to late month strong cold and snow should move in, the onset could be very rapid.