Another severe WX setup coming up

Sunday morning update

Models currently point to a potential severe setup with large hail, high winds, and flash flooding this weekend. The setup has changed dramatically with dry air invading from the currently hot arctic(temps up there locally into the low to mid 30s)

Models are still having a hard time even on the same day of the setup, the best shear is shifting up to 70km from run to run. So anything could happen

Sunday looks marginal close to home as NAM shows a finger of 1250 CAPE extending into the Camrose, Viking area moving toward the SK border by midnight while the 3000+ Cape seems to be stuck in southern Alberta. Though the cape is not great the Camrose area has some good shear. 30kt sfc-850 and 35kt sfc-700mb shear means that severe WX can exist even with the lower cape, Cells in the area will likely be isolated LP supercells. Good top to bottom shear could make these quite severe with very Large hail.                                                 The RAP(a short term model with max 18 hour lead time) Shows this is the beast shear in East Central Alberta including Camrose, Loydminister, Provost, Coronation, and Vermillion.

Monday looks to be isolated to the SE corner of the province and into Saskatchewan.                                                                                                                                                                 Temps are in the mid to high 20s, but Dewpoints are to low for anything significant in Central Alberta.

Tuesday shows new tends towards better dewpoints in Central Alberta, though things seem to dry out quickly, shear is low so only a few pulses early in the day as the rest of the action remains in Saskatchewan.

As always stay tuned, With the past changes as large as they were I expect things to radically change with future days of this WX setup.

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