Hot and humid, all we need now is good shear and a trigger and were set of an epic chase

Alberta in now int he grips of a heat wave with temperatures in the 30s and dewpoints up to 20C or more. Some model runs show dewpoints as high as 25C, incredible for Alberta. Currently the shear is in the right direction but is weak. Poor flow aloft is also a problem for the next week. We are expecting 3000j/kg of CAPE or more for a half dozen days. aside from isolated pockets of shear here and there there is no real shear for the next week. just a stagnant “topical island” weather pattern, and most thunderstorms int he next week will probably resemble those encountered in Cuba

Today’s 12Z GFS run shows the heat and humidity lasting now until Tuesday the 17th. that 9 days of constant heat and humidity. And the consensus is that the heat rebuilds after a day or two which means we may be looking at the hottest July on record for Alberta, though it is only a 5 year old record but now the top 3 hottest July’s on record will be in a 6 year period. If we pass the 2007 record the top 3 would be… 2012,2007, and 2006. Either way July 2012 could easily land in the top 3.

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