AlbertaWX member Matt Melnyk does it again!

Last night while flying from Toronto to Calgary at 38,000 feet. Taken by AlbertaWX member Matt Melnyk.

Winter 2018 forecast: Uncertain but could be a cold one.

After a fall that averaged near to above normal quenched by November cold and snow. Winter 2017/18 is likely to have even more temperature swings, more than we saw last year with swings from the minus 30s to near the all time highs in mere weeks.

Winter should finish off with near to below normal temperatures and generally lower snowfall outside of the rocky mountains and foothills.

The Main factor in play this season is a moderate La Nina, and favors below normal temperatures but may be moderated by other factors such as the AO, PDO, and NAO

While December is very mild; January will likely see the coldest temperatures of the season, possibly into February and the stubborn cold May linger well into March making for a late spring.

December: Well above normal temperatures and very dry. A small amount of snow¬†might save Edmonton and Calgary from a brown Christmas. It may only be 5cm or so but it’s enough to make Christmas white

January: Very cold at times, remaining dry.

February: chance of a thaw but overall near to colder than normal. Snowfall close to normal.

Real significant snowfall might not come until February or March as the dominant air masses in play are very low in moisture content.

The risk of blizzards is higher than a normal winter as the chance of high winds is higher.

Fall 2017 Forecast

After a hot, smokey and dry summer fall will continue the warm pattern but with a few breaks of colder and wetter weather. The warmest Month compared to normal will be October

The warmest anomalies should be in the Southeast part of the province. near normal in northwestern Alberta. A trough to the west and ridge to the east setup for much of the fall should beef up precip amounts and may cause similar issues to last year during harvest.

September: Near normal temperatures overall and wetter. Periods of hot and dry mixed with snowy and cold spells should equalize anomalies and Sept should finish near normal.

October: Much warmer than normal and wet. Warm weather over long periods with ample rainfall; This combo may also result in some very late season thunderstorm outbreaks. Primary areas are along the rim of the ridge including the QE2 corridor and the Yellow head corridor.

November: Warmer than normal, near normal precip. There is some uncertainty with November due to a developing La Nina event. At this point very warm temperatures at least for the first half, however the transition to winter might be slow or delayed into December.