November 2016 Forecast: Indian summer!

After an October that was more than 2C colder than normal and with double the snowfall things are to dramatically switch for November. Starting around Oct 26th the long range models consistently plotted record smashing temperatures. As of this post(Nov) so far day 2 of that same record heat. A very strong pattern has set up and locked in the heat for Western Canada.

Temperatures have shot up towards the 20s, IN NOVEMBER. One location(Edmonton Airport) broke the all time high for the month twice on consecutive days, and there might even be a 3rd! Current models+bias(actual temperature-modelled temperature=Bias) shows even this record could fall again during the 2nd week of the month as temperatures might even reach the mid 20s in parts of central and southern Alberta.

This heat wave may last for a significant time. The CFS,ECMWF are jumping around between the 15th and inter December for the end of the 10+C warmer than normal weather. Generally the 20th is a good guess at this point for this forecast.

Overall November could 10C warmer than normal or higher and in the top 5 toastiest on record. Closer to normal conditions could be in store toward the final two weeks

Nov 1-10: Extremely warm and dry. Temperatures from the teens to the low 20s.

Nov 10-20:Possibly the peak of the warmth with temperatures nearing the mid 20s in select locations in central and southern Alberta.

Nov 20-30: Cooling off. Timing of the cool down will decide where in the top 5 Nov 2016 will sit. Temperatures could see a 50C drop from the highs were seeing for the beginning of the month

October 2016 could be the coldest in a decade!

Earlier I decided not to do a forecast for October as at first the one in the Fall 2016 forecast seems good. But things may not pan out that way, so here is your October 2016 forecast)

Near of above normal temperature are staying at 3 and 4 weeks out in the models when we get closer the trends have changed. This is what I see as a good sign of stubborn weather pattern.

October 2016 could be the coldest in a decade, with temperatures close to 5-10 degrees below normal, above normal snow/rainfall.

Oct 8-15: Temperatures well below normal with several rounds of snow, it will look and feel more like December.

Oct 15-31: getting even colder with more snow. This could be the actual start of Winter 2016/17 as the snow may stick around until March or April 2017.

Some Recent examples of very early winter’s would be winter 2004/05 and winter 2006/07 with winter starting in Mid Oct and Late Oct respectively. Oct 2009 saw a period of extremely cold temperatures(-20C) and snow, but there 15C weather in November that managed to remove all of the snow.

Fall 2016 Forecast: A bit of everything.

After a summer better called the “monsoon season” the transition into Autumn seems to have the same rain, and more rain we have seen since mid May. 2016 was the 2nd most active since 2005 with 59 thunderstorms as of Sept 8, so a few more are likely before the end of the year so I could see a tie for the most active. 2016 also made news with it’s severity being the first in a decade to see 10 or more tornadoes and was closer to pre-2002 activity, also a populated area was impacted(Ponoka) by one of these tornadoes(EF-1). I recorded a total of 16 severe thunderstorms in my single local area which is the highest number I’ve logged since i started keeping track in 2005. We are currently entering the autumn with moisture levels not seen in years so we may see thunderstorm outbreaks and heavy rainfall events into October. Unless the fall is much cooler than average 2016 will run in the top 3 warmest years on record. Much of this headroom was made during the winter which was incredibly warm.

Overall The Autumn should be near normal for temperatures and precipitation. Cooler and very wet weather in September is likely to change to a warmer and slightly drier pattern as early as Late September. With possible warm and dry periods before that. The fall could be a little of the cool and wet side for southwestern Alberta while the northwest warms up and dries out into October.

September:Slightly cooler than normal and very wet in the western part of the province, near normal temperatures and near normal- wet over the remainder of the province.

Sept 1-15: Mild and very humid for the time of year. Very wet. Some days might be reach 25C. High thunderstorm activity

Sept 15-30: Becoming drier and warmer overall. Severe thunderstorm still a likelihood.

Oct: Warmer than normal with slightly below normal rainfall/snowfall. Severe thunderstorms possible as late as thanksgiving. Unusual warmth around Halloween.

November: Closer to normal overall, drier. Very warm and drier to start the month, At some point Mid to late month strong cold and snow should move in, the onset could be very rapid.

 

 

 

 

Matt Melnyk makes CBC and CTV

       Congratulations goes to our fellow chaser Matt Melnyk for his recent exposure and his ongoing contributions that bring awareness about severe thunderstorms to the general public. 

         Matt was recently featured on CBC for aerial photos he took while flying past a severe thunderstorm near Yorkton Saskatchewan that produced a tornado on July 31st 2016. 

         Recently busy with his career Matt has returned with a vengeance. He has brought with him his legendary lightning photography and the unique perspectives he can get.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/saskatchewan/pilot-takes-photos-of-sask-sunday-storm-1.3705395

August 2016 Forecast: Quite wet indeed!

July was near average and wet over much of central and southern Alberta. The northern Part of the province was warmer than average with and drier than normal with the exception of parts of northeastern Alberta. The wettest part compared to average was a wide band down the trans Canada highway in southern Alberta where accumulations surpassed records. This was due to day after day of never ending severe thunderstorms. The month of July was one of “stuck” weather patterns, this were pretty much the same in a given area form the majority of July.

As for August long range models(albeit somewhat in agreement) show a northward shift in the zonal jet which should shift the extreme rainfall events north as well. This pushes any warm anomaly even more north. Only the very extreme north will see above normal temperatures. Parts of the foothills may see well below normal temperatures and a high risk of early snowfall down into the valleys by the end of the month or early Sept(Deja vu 2014?) perhaps down to the major centres such as Calgary(yes I’m hinting at August snow Calgary!).

Details.

Aug 1-10: Very wet and humid in Central and Southern Alberta. Warm and dry extreme north.

Aug 10-20: Heavy rainfall over much of the province, frequent thunderstorms widespread. Warmer and drier as you go north

Aug 20-30: Very cold by August standards , snow comes early to the Rockies and foothills. There is a risk of unusually early killing frost in eastern Alberta. There is a chance of a quick shot of heat but overall cold and wet.

A quick note. A major change(possibly due to the natural Autumn variability) looks to take place sometime from mid Sept to Mid Oct and is pointing toward a very warm fall 2016. Many locations may see their highest temperatures of the year in September or October(particularly in places such as Red Deer and Rocky mountain house).

 

July 2016 Forecast: A July like 2010/2011

Almost every long range model seems to point toward the coolest July in years. Then again the coolest after several hot summers is not exceptional by any means, June was a degree or two warmer than normal so near to slightly cooler July will only damped the warm 2016 year. Unless august were to continue to cooler, wetter weather.

Parts of central Alberta may not see their first 30C day until August or September. Or at the very earliest late July. Essentially locations that did not already hit 30C in May or June have a potentially long wait into late summer before reaching the “mark of summer”

July is expected to finish between 3C below average(top 10 coldest on record) to about 2C above average depending on which part of the province. The far north is expected to be the warmest compared to average, and will often be the hotspot. Other warmer areas include southeastern Alberta. The coldest areas compared to average will be in west central Alberta including Drayton Valley, Red Deer, and rocky mountain house. Edmonton and Calgary should finish up near normal.

Rainfall highest in west central Alberta and along the entire length of the foothills. This includes the centres of Red Deer and Calgary.

Thunderstorm activity will be very high, even with the cooler temperatures the ample moisture should allow storms to reach severe status often over the course of July. Similar to July 2010, and July 2011.

Details:

July 1-10: Mild and stormy over most of Alberta, very humid. Severe weather almost daily. Remaining hot and dry in extreme north

July 10-20: Pattern persists. Frequent SE gulf flow leading to very high humidity and mild temperatures. Frequent storm systems. Low likelihood of sustained heat other than in the north.

July 20-31: First chance of more significant heat, Likely not much more than high 20s over the majority of the province longer than a couple days at a time. However the very high humidity could make it feel more like the upper 30s. The higher temperatures could fuel thunderstorms significantly more violent than earlier in the month.

June 21st storms in Central Alberta

Quite a line of storms passed through central Alberta prompting severe thunderstorm watches and warnings throughout the afternoon. 2 teams of AlbertaWX chasers followed the storms which caused overland flooding in the Bittern Lake region and loonie sized hail. Our two teams did not see anything in the way of tornadic activity this afternoon as shear was non-existent near Edmonton. Down by Strathmore a cold core funnel was observed where there was a bit of shear on the models.

Photo credits to AlbertaWX Chasers Chrisy, Cheemo and Mike R

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