Models still hint to periodic gulf flow in Sept and Oct. Upcoming weak severe setup

A slight risk of severe WX is possible this Saturday Aug 27th. On another note long range models are still showing periodic gulf flow well into September. Such conditions are unusual and may offer out of season severe WX as there still are signs of gulf flow as late as October.

I will be getting quite busy as the fall and winter near with my new career. During this time I can only count on getting Sundays to chase.

The season so far is in line with the increasing trend of severe Alberta weather. The level of thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm development is up from 2010 which was nearly double the activity of the year before. The occurrence of severe hailstorms has nearly doubled in recent years.

The cause of all the action is partly a combination of two long term weather patterns. A negative phase PDO(pacific decadal osculation) bringing in plenty of cold dry air, and a negative phase of the Atlantic/Arctic osculations bringing up hot and humid air to collide with the cold air.

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