AlbertaWX – Central Alberta Storm Chasers

A cold front is expected to slice through some of the muggiest air ever seen in Alberta, with shear and helicity sky high the risk of an outbreak is fairly high. Temperatures in the mid 30s and dewpoints in the low to mid 20s make it feel more like it’s in the low to mid 40s. The timing of the cold front is just after the supper hour and a strong cap is allowing the heat and humidity build to levels not seen in the Edmonton areas since records began, I think some areas could peak at 34C or 35C with dewpoints possibly as high as 26C.

SBcape peaking around 5000 with MLcape at 4000. EHI looks to peak a 6 at the 0-3km level and 2 at the 0-1km level. Mid level shear is expected to, severe supercells likely and the Edmonton area is in the middle of the danger zone, the capital region could expect very large hail exceeding the size of baseballs, wind gusts above 100km/h, and the risk of tornadoes. A squall line may follow the supercells packing winds of 100km/h or more, large hail, flash flooding, and very frequent and spectacular lightning.

Stay tuned for updates. Mike R(me) is south of Edmonton and ready to deploy

June 26th/27 saw the first nocturnal storm of the year in the Edmonton area. Frequent lightning strikes made noise all night. Several storms also formed up to the south of Millet during daylight hours and into the evening.

A major heatwave is coming this weekend and could last well into next week. Temperatures should rise into the high 20s at first but later get into the low to mid 30s. A few model runs are even going as far as showing high 30s, or even the 40s!

All this heat will combine with the saturated ground to create some of the muggiest conditions of the year, possibly triggering humidex advisories much like we saw last year.
As for WX good helicity and upper level shear should allow for an almost daily chance of discrete supercells over a wide area. Low level shear is not as high so tornadoes will be few and far between.

Then again the storms may bring very large hail, very intense lightning, severe downpours and damaging winds.

Saturday seems to be the first of the storm days. SBcape up to 3500 along with shear will create 0-3km EHI levels of 2 or 3, and 0-1km EHI of 1 or 2.

It’s late June and I’ve released my forecast for the Summer of 2013.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Mikeman444/comment.html?entrynum=69

With the devastating floods in Southern Alberta the forecast is likely not what we all want to hear. The reasons for the cold wet forecast down there is a combination of 3 things.

-A cycle created by excessive moisture. solar energy goes to evaporating the water instead of heating the ground, the water forms clouds and produces more rain putting down slightly less than what evaporated.
-Blocking has been predominant so far, currently a blocking pattern over Alaska has resulted in an extreme jet stream pattern and partly caused the great floods.
-The summers during such floods have had a history of being cold and wet. The summers of 2005 and 1995 were quite chilly. Summer 1986 also had a cooler soggy summer. A connection and not purely in indicator of what summer 2013 may bring.