AlbertaWX – Central Alberta Storm Chasers

Almost every long range model seems to point toward the coolest July in years. Then again the coolest after several hot summers is not exceptional by any means, June was a degree or two warmer than normal so near to slightly cooler July will only damped the warm 2016 year. Unless august were to continue to cooler, wetter weather.

Parts of central Alberta may not see their first 30C day until August or September. Or at the very earliest late July. Essentially locations that did not already hit 30C in May or June have a potentially long wait into late summer before reaching the “mark of summer”

July is expected to finish between 3C below average(top 10 coldest on record) to about 2C above average depending on which part of the province. The far north is expected to be the warmest compared to average, and will often be the hotspot. Other warmer areas include southeastern Alberta. The coldest areas compared to average will be in west central Alberta including Drayton Valley, Red Deer, and rocky mountain house. Edmonton and Calgary should finish up near normal.

Rainfall highest in west central Alberta and along the entire length of the foothills. This includes the centres of Red Deer and Calgary.

Thunderstorm activity will be very high, even with the cooler temperatures the ample moisture should allow storms to reach severe status often over the course of July. Similar to July 2010, and July 2011.

Details:

July 1-10: Mild and stormy over most of Alberta, very humid. Severe weather almost daily. Remaining hot and dry in extreme north

July 10-20: Pattern persists. Frequent SE gulf flow leading to very high humidity and mild temperatures. Frequent storm systems. Low likelihood of sustained heat other than in the north.

July 20-31: First chance of more significant heat, Likely not much more than high 20s over the majority of the province longer than a couple days at a time. However the very high humidity could make it feel more like the upper 30s. The higher temperatures could fuel thunderstorms significantly more violent than earlier in the month.

Quite a line of storms passed through central Alberta prompting severe thunderstorm watches and warnings throughout the afternoon. 2 teams of AlbertaWX chasers followed the storms which caused overland flooding in the Bittern Lake region and loonie sized hail. Our two teams did not see anything in the way of tornadic activity this afternoon as shear was non-existent near Edmonton. Down by Strathmore a cold core funnel was observed where there was a bit of shear on the models.

Photo credits to AlbertaWX Chasers Chrisy, Cheemo and Mike R

After a very dry start, spring ended with more than 100mm(4 inches) of rain. A dramatic end to the severe drought conditions. The same sudden switch to cooler rainier weather seems to be common of the ENSO cycle. similar events took place in 1998,, 1988, 1983, 1973, 1966, and 1958 following strong Elnino Events. Roughly half of these events saw the rain and cool air last through the entire summer, the other 3 saw temperatures heat up through August. Another factor is the developing positive phase of the PDO, this generally promotes an active pattern. The last +pdo spanned through the 80s and 90s.

Summer 2016 temperatures should be overall slightly above to above normal. Well above normal in the extreme southern and NW part of the province. Rainfall should be near to above normal over much of the province with the exception of extreme NE and SE Alberta. A note, these anomalies overall will likely be the average of two extremes from the first to last half of the summer.

June: Temperatures near to above normal over most of the province. Extreme NW may be slightly below normal.

1-10: Hot and humid, several rounds of severe weather likely.

10-20: remaining warm and humid in eastern and southern Alberta. cooler than normal to near normal elsewhere. High thunderstorm activity in southern Alberta. Heavy rain in the elbow and to the east, lasting several days at a time.

20-30: Variable hot and cooler weather. Humid with higher risk of severe thunderstorms over most of the province. particularly in the capital region due to frequent airmass collisions.

July: Overall near normal to warmer than normal. Warmest compared to normal in the southern part of the province, potentially very hot. Rainfall becoming more near to below normal in some areas esp the NW. Very high thunderstorm activity in the central part of the province, including severe. Becoming hotter in the NW toward the end of the month.

August: Temperatures above to well above normal, rainfall below normal. Becoming very hot in the NW part of the province. This may spark a 2nd period of extreme fire risk. Extreme heat spreads into central and Southern parts of Alberta periodically. Thunderstorm activity should be far lower than the first part of summer.