After a rainy and cool September the warm and dry weather is already beginning to return. As we go into October the effects of the super El Nino of 2015 will only get stronger, thus a bias toward warmer and drier weather. Currently the last 3 runs of the CFSv2 have been consistent with very high temperatures around Thanksgiving, around 18-22c at the 850mb level.
The El-Nino is currently in the 2.3C range(super Elnino between 82/83 and 97/98 in terms of strength)
Overall October 2015 will be warm and dry over most of the province. Expect a higher than normal variability due to the effects of the El Nino, so bitter cold should be noted especially in the north-eastern parts.
Oct 1-10: Beginning warm turning to colder and drier.
Oct 10-20: Heating up around thanksgiving, temperatures potentially reaching the mid 20s or higher. A sharp drop afterwards and remaining cooler.
Oct 20-31: Warm and dry, Severe wind storm risk higher than the norm.
Note: forecasting weather in advance is not easy, We take into effect multiple model runs, existing conditions, and larger scale patterns to come up with a forecast.